The homepage of the "A Song for Bayes" arrangment

The homepage of the choir vox11 including music samples

Monty Hall

Consider a game show.

In the game you are facing 3 doors, behind one of which is a prize. Monty Hall, the host, asks you to pick a door, any door. You pick door A (say). Monty knowing where the price is opens door B (say) and shows voila there is nothing behind door B (Monty knows where the prize is located). Monty gives you the choice of either sticking with your original choice of door A, or switching to door C.

Select a door :

Enter choice by host Monty Hall :

Location of the price Probability Probability bar
Door A
Door B
Door C

You can use the select boxes above to simulate different scenarios and see the impact on the probability of the price being located behind each of the possible doors.