Links 

The homepage of the "A Song for Bayes" arrangment

The homepage of the choir vox11 including music samples

Investment Risk Profile

At bayes.song.wordpress.com there is a blogposting "Bayes net = gule lapper?" which gives an example of an investment Risk profile(in the blogposting "Pensionsrådgivning"). Investment Risk Profile is modelled this way

 

The point in the simplified model of investmentstrategy is that the dependencies between the four nodes are complex. Sometimes the band customers judgements of "Longterm_macroeconomical_expectations" and "Longterm_private_financial_situation" support each other. In other cases they do not. 

For a human it can be very difficult to comprehend the conditioned probabilities. Therefore a interactive model can be an good pedaogical tool. 

Below you can interact with the model above by controlling the 3 nodes to the right which should be controlled by the investor(da. Pensioninvestoren). And see the recommendation. 

The example is - because of pedagocal concerns simplified compared to real life investment risk profiles. 

Select Long term macro economical expectations:

Select long term private financial situation:

Interest and desire in investment of own portefolio:

Location of the price Probability Probability bar
Very cautious
Cautious
Minimal risk
High risk

You can use the select boxes above to simulate different scenarios and see the impact on the long term investment strategy.